Iran just threatened to cut the Gulf's internet cables

The Strait of Hormuz isn't just an oil route. Some of the internet cables connecting the Gulf to the rest of the world run under it too. And Iran is now saying, out loud, that it knows exactly where those cables are.

This didn't come out of nowhere. The US and Israel have been at war with Iran since the end of February. That's about eight months now. Strikes, pauses, no real ceasefire.

So far, the US has treated this as a pause, not the end. Two days ago the White House said there'd be no new attacks before the midterm elections on 3 November. But The New York Times reports the Pentagon and Israel's military have already drawn up a plan for a short, heavy strike on Iran's nuclear sites, energy infrastructure and missile systems. Timed for right after the vote.

So here's the problem. Barrack said a strike this weekend was possible. The White House says no strikes before 3 November. Those two things don't match.

Maybe Barrack was describing a real option on a faster timeline. Maybe he just got it wrong. Or maybe the administration wanted that message out there without saying it directly. And Trump's own response made it messier, not clearer — first he said he knew nothing about it, then hours later he threatened a strike himself.

There's more pressure running at the same time. Mike Waltz, the US ambassador to the United Nations, said the Navy can keep blockading Iranian ports for as long as it takes. And the US has pulled back staff at four Middle East embassies, after intelligence reports said Iran had stepped up efforts to target American staff.

Markets felt it immediately. Brent crude hit $116.72 a barrel, the highest in about six months. US crude jumped nearly four dollars to $103.27.

Foreign ministers from eight countries, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Britain, met in Istanbul. Their warning: a new round of fighting would spread further and push oil prices even higher.

Trump's approval rating has dropped to about 31 per cent, with the midterms less than two weeks away. Israel holds its own election in just a few days.

So what don't we know? Whether Trump has actually signed off on a new strike. Whether Barrack's weekend timeline is real Pentagon planning or just talk. Whether Iran's cable plan is ready to go or just a warning. Gulf states haven't said anything, and neither the US State Department nor Iran's Foreign Ministry answered Reuters' questions.

Right now there are two threats sitting on the table, from two governments that aren't talking to each other through normal channels, in a war that's already run eight months with no end in sight.