Iran just watched Trump open the door to striking it again

Donald Trump just said the US might hit Iran again.

He said it earlier today, at the White House, right before he flew off to a campaign rally in Iowa.

His words: "We've knocked the hell out of them, and we may do it a little bit further."

So is that a new war order? Not quite.

He didn't name a date. He didn't name a target. This is Donald Trump talking the way he's talked about Iran for weeks.

But here's why people are watching this one closely.

Fifteen days ago, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the US would not attack Iran before the midterm elections. Not at any time before 3 November. That was the promise.

Today's comment doesn't cancel that outright. But it's the first time since he made that promise that he's talked about hitting Iran again at all.

And he was already warming up to it a day earlier. He said the US wasn't negotiating with Iran, and that something would happen soon, one way or another. Today he went further than that. He stopped talking about what might happen and started talking about what's already been done.

Now, the backdrop. The New York Times reports that American and Israeli militaries have already drawn up plans for new strikes on Iran, to launch once the midterms are over. Nobody knows if Donald Trump has signed off on those plans. Nobody knows if he will.

Mike Waltz, the US Ambassador to the United Nations, said today that America could be locked in a stand-off with Iran for another year without a real deal on its nuclear programme. He called Iran's recent proposals a cynical attempt to end the war without ever dealing with America's worries about nuclear proliferation.

Iran hasn't said a word back. Neither has Abbas Araghchi, Iran's Foreign Minister.

And that silence stands out, because of where Iran's counterparts actually are today. European and Middle Eastern foreign ministers are in Istanbul right now, talking about security in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider region. Donald Trump's comments landed the same day as that meeting. One outlet has reported them side by side. Others have reported Trump's remarks on their own, with nothing tying them directly to Istanbul yet.

Donald Trump also posted today that Iran was doing all it could to push oil prices up before the midterms, accusing it of making up fake hits, mines and everything else.

And oil prices have actually climbed. They're at their highest level since May.

So why does that matter? Because every extra dollar on the oil price is money moving before anyone has even fired a shot.

It also tells you something about the mood in Washington right now. Trump is talking tougher than he was a week ago, and oil traders are already pricing in the chance he means it.

There's also the money behind a drawn-out stand-off. Mike Waltz is already talking about a full extra year without a deal. That is not the language of a government expecting a quick fix.

So where does that leave things? Genuinely open.

Donald Trump hasn't said he'll strike before the midterms. He hasn't ruled it out either. The plans for a strike after the election already exist, on paper, whatever happens at the ballot box.

The only thing missing is his decision. And right now, nobody outside the White House knows which way that's going to go.