America just refused to bomb the Houthis and Saudi Arabia is losing the Red Sea

Donald Trump got hours away from bombing the Houthis in Yemen this weekend.

Then he pulled the plug.

Here's how close it got. Adm. Brad Cooper runs U.S. Central Command. Two days ago he handed strike options to Pete Hegseth, the Defense Secretary. Commanders signed off on target lists. Troops started loading bombs onto planes.

And then, by midday, Trump called it off.

That's according to two unnamed U.S. officials who spoke to Axios, building on earlier reporting from The New York Times. Reuters says it could not independently verify the account, and CENTCOM never responded to its request for comment. The White House and the Saudi embassy in Washington both declined to comment.

So why almost strike, then stop?

This is the second time in ten days that Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince, has asked Trump directly for American strikes on the Houthis.

The first time was about ten days ago. He called Trump twice in one day, as Houthi fighters closed in on a Red Sea chokepoint. Trump said no. He offered intelligence and targeting data instead. America said at the time it would not get involved militarily as long as the Houthis left non-Saudi shipping alone.

A few days ago, with the Saudi counteroffensive stalling, the Crown Prince asked again. This time Trump appeared to say yes.

Then he said no again.

So what changed his mind at the last minute?

Alex Plitsas is a fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former Pentagon official. He says Trump feared that striking the Houthis could push them to threaten the Bab al-Mandeb strait itself, creating a second chokepoint next to the one Iran already controls at the Strait of Hormuz. About 12% of all world trade sails through the Bab al-Mandeb.

The Houthis aren't waiting to see what Washington decides.

Yemeni military sources told Reuters they're now pushing to take the Kahboub Mountains, in Taiz and Lahij provinces. That high ground would cut the Red Sea coast off from the areas Saudi-backed government forces still hold. Fighting is centred on Al-Wazi'iyah district in Taiz, and on Ras al-Ara on the Indian Ocean coast. Saudi Arabia says it has launched hundreds of strikes on Houthi positions in the highlands in the last few days.

Earlier this month the Houthis seized the port city of Mokha and a string of Red Sea islands. That gave them a clear view over shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb. A couple of days ago they said they had fired on Riyadh itself. Loud booms were followed by columns of smoke near the Saudi capital's airport. Saudi Arabia hasn't commented on that one.