Russia's oil refinery just got bombed for the third time this year

So if this really is Ilsky again, that's at least the third confirmed Ukrainian strike on this one refinery in under three months. And the fourth since June.

Here's the timeline. Ukraine's General Staff confirmed a strike on Ilsky on 2 June that caused a major fire. Then another overnight on 9 to 10 July, alongside oil terminals in Taganrog and Azov. Then a third on 8 August, hitting Ilsky and the Syzran refinery the same night. Five people were wounded that time. Nobody died.

And according to ASTRA, Ilsky had already been hit at least 16 times since the war began, as of June.

So this is not a refinery Ukraine is moving on from. It's one Ukraine keeps coming back to.

Here's why that matters. Ilsky makes close to 6.6 million tons of fuel a year. It sits about 500 kilometres from Ukrainian-controlled territory. So every hit shows just how far Ukraine's drones can now fly.

And it's part of something bigger. On 21 September, after a strike on a Moscow refinery, Ukraine's General Staff said more than 45% of Russia's designed oil refining capacity is now offline. The International Energy Agency says that by the end of June, fuel shortages had hit 92% of Russia's regions. Two-thirds of those regions started rationing fuel.

So every strike on Ilsky lands on a system that's already stretched thin. Russia's repair crews and air defences can't keep up.

Kondratiev says drones did it. He didn't name Ukraine. He says air defences engaged the attack. He gave no number for how many died, and no other official has given one either.

So here's what we still don't know. How many people have died. Whether Ilsky was definitely one of the facilities hit. How bad the damage really is, if it was. Whether the refinery will have to shut down, like it reportedly did after the June strike. And whether Ukraine's General Staff will confirm this one, the way it confirmed every strike on Ilsky before it.