Informative · Defence spending

Russia just locked in its biggest war budget and a bigger army to match

2 days ago · 29 September 2026Share

Msta-S self-propelled artillery guns on Moscow streets during military parade rehearsal. — Msta-S self-propelled artillery guns on the streets of Moscow during a military parade rehearsal. Vyacheslav Argenberg · CC BY 4.0

Russia just committed to spending more on its military than at any point since the war in Ukraine started.

17.1 trillion roubles. About $202.6 billion. That's the defence budget for 2027.

And it's 27% higher than what Russia originally planned to spend that year.

So where's this coming from? Government budget documents, seen by Reuters, reported a few hours ago.

Over the next three years, Russia's total defence spending adds up to 50 trillion roubles. Around $591 billion.

And on the same day, Vladimir Putin signed a decree setting Russia's armed forces at 2,441,630 people. 1,550,500 of them active-duty troops.

That's 15,500 more than the last ceiling. And it took effect the second Putin signed it.

Here's the part that matters. This is the fourth time this year Putin has raised troop numbers. March. June. July. Now September.

Compare that to the four years before this one. From 2022 to 2026, he only did it three times total.

So in nine months, he's matched four years.

Now, the exact scale of that build-up isn't fully clear. TASS says the ceiling grew by 49,860 people between March and September. Meduza says the four decrees this year added 52,500 positions, 50,500 of them troops. Those numbers don't match, and neither outlet explains why.

And all this spending has a cost.

Russia just raised its own estimate for the 2026 budget deficit. From 1.6% of GDP to 3.2%. Double.

State debt is set to hit 21.7% of GDP in 2027, up from 19.9% this year. That's above the level Russian authorities themselves call safe.

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Russian 102nd Military Base. File photo. Yerevantsi · CC BY-SA 4.0

Government borrowing next year goes up 43%, to 7.7 trillion roubles.

So how is Russia covering the gap? Partly by cutting other numbers. It's lowered its 2026 oil and gas revenue estimate to 7.6 trillion roubles, down from 8.9 trillion.

It's also bringing in a new windfall tax on metals and mining companies. Expected to raise about 200 billion roubles a year.

Overall government spending in 2026 still rises 13.2%, to 48.6 trillion roubles. That's 20.9% of GDP.

One number Russia isn't giving out: what it actually spent on defence in 2026. That figure is classified.

The draft budget goes to Russia's parliament by 1 October.

Now, here's what nobody in Moscow has said out loud. No Russian official has commented publicly on what any of this means for how long the war lasts, or how Moscow thinks it ends. The documents give numbers. Not strategy.

So why raise spending and troop numbers in the same year, after already raising the ceiling three times before? There are two readings.

One: Russia's planners expect a long war and are building the budget and the force to match.

Two: the opposite. Russia is struggling to hold its current numbers and is topping up losses while spending more just to stay where it is.

The documents don't say which. And nobody has asked the Kremlin directly, in public, at least not yet.

But here's what's clear. Four troop increases in nine months. The biggest defence budget of the war. A deficit and a debt level both climbing to pay for it.

Whatever the reason, Russia is not planning to spend less next year. And it is not planning to have a smaller army.

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Russia just locked in its biggest war budget and a bigger army to match

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