Iraq just took over its own security and the Kurdish region has no air defence left

America just left Iraq for good.

The last US troops walked out of Erbil Air Base a few hours ago. That's it. 23 years of American boots on Iraqi ground, over.

So how did we get here? US troops first invaded in 2003 to remove Saddam Hussein. They left in 2011. Then in 2014 Iraq asked them back, because the Islamic State group had just taken huge chunks of the country.

That second mission just ended. 12 years, done.

Sean Parnell, the Pentagon's press secretary, said American and coalition forces have finished leaving Erbil Air Base in an orderly way. He's calling it a successful campaign, and a handover to Iraqi-led security.

Ali al-Zaidi, Iraq's Prime Minister, ran the ceremony himself. He says this is a new phase for Iraq. Built on sovereignty, stronger institutions, stronger security forces, one unified decision-maker, and balanced partnerships with its allies.

Iraq has even declared a public holiday for it. They're calling it Sovereignty Days. It runs from today until 3 October.

But here's the problem.

This whole withdrawal deal was supposed to come with something else. Iran-aligned militias inside Iraq were meant to disarm by today too. That was the deadline.

It didn't happen.

A few smaller militias handed over some weapons. The powerful, Iran-backed ones didn't. Some are refusing outright. Others are setting conditions Baghdad almost certainly can't meet.

So what did al-Zaidi do? He moved the deadline. He told the New York Times earlier this month that militia disarmament is now pushed to June 2027.

And one of those militias, Kataib Hezbollah, used today to make a point.

Abu Mujahid al-Assaf, a security official with the group, put out a statement. He says the expulsion of what he called the defeated occupation forces from Iraq is the beginning of full sovereignty.

Then he went further, warning al-Zaidi's own government that it could be overthrown if it fails to serve the people.

That's an Iran-backed militia warning Iraq's own prime minister, on the day of his handover ceremony, that his government could be next.

Now look at the Kurdish region. This is where the gap really shows.

The Kurdistan Regional Government's Peshmerga Ministry says the region faced more than 1,000 drone and missile attacks during the recent war between the US and Iran.

And the US just took its Patriot and C-RAM air defence systems out of Erbil. No replacement has been announced.

The Peshmerga Ministry calls that a matter of concern.

Masrour Barzani, the Kurdistan Regional Government's Prime Minister, was blunter with the Financial Times this week. He said the threat is real, the region is vulnerable and under attack, and called being left without air defence shameful.

Sirwan Barzani, a Kurdish military commander, told Reuters that Iraq could also lose US intelligence sharing, logistics support and drone capability. The militias and the Islamic State group's remaining cells don't have to go without any of that.

So what's the safety net? Al-Zaidi says both Washington and the Iran-aligned militias have promised to hold off on attacks for 90 days after the withdrawal.

That buys time. It answers nothing about what happens after those 90 days.

Here's the thing though. The Islamic State group is much weaker than it was in 2014. It's down to scattered sleeper cells, not an army holding cities.

But the security gap this whole withdrawal was meant to fix, by disarming the militias filling it, is still wide open.

Baghdad has bought itself until June 2027 to close it.

Whether that date actually holds is a completely different question.