Iran just got accused of faking tanker attacks to spike oil prices

Donald Trump just called Iran a liar.

He posted it on Truth Social a few hours ago. Iran, he says, is faking attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Why? To push oil prices up before next month's midterms.

Here's what he actually wrote. Donald Trump says quote "more Oil is coming through the Hormuz Strait now than it did even prior to the beginning of the Conflict".

So he's saying two things. Iran is lying. And the strait is busier than before the war.

Now here's Iran's version, posted the same day.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard navy says four tankers got hit and caught fire overnight. Ship to ship oil transfers, they say. And three more vessels hit naval mines further down the strait.

Seven vessels. One night. If that's true, it's the worst night for shipping in the strait since this war started in February.

But nobody outside Iran has confirmed any of it. No ship names. No flags. No numbers of dead or wounded.

A US Central Command official, talking to Al Jazeera without their name attached, says Iran's mine claims are wrong. They say American forces already cleared those lanes. And they say the strait is open, with 95 percent of vessels still getting through.

So both sides are accusing the other of lying. And neither has shown proof.

Now let's check Donald Trump's claim against the actual shipping data.

Kpler tracks oil shipments for a living. On 11 October, they recorded 2.9 million barrels passing through the strait. The prewar average was 17.1 million barrels a day.

The UN's maritime safety body backs that up. UKMTO says traffic on 16 October was running about 70 percent below prewar levels.

That is the opposite of what Donald Trump said.

But it's not a clean picture either way. Kpler also found something else. Total Middle East oil exports, counting pipelines and routes that skip the strait entirely, were above prewar levels in the week to 18 October. Even while the strait itself was still only carrying about 82 percent of its normal traffic that week.