Iran just confirmed it is bombing ships in the Strait of Hormuz every day

Iran has been hitting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on a huge scale for two months. And almost nobody outside a small circle of Western security officials knew about it until now.

Here's the number. About 30 drone attacks a week. About 10 anti-ship missile attacks a week. That's roughly 40 attacks every single week, since the start of August. The data came from a Western security official who spoke to The New York Times on condition of anonymity.

So how many of those are actually hitting ships? A lot of them miss. But not all of them. At least four commercial ships were hit by Iran over the past 10 days alone.

And here's the big part. Iran has basically confirmed it.

Three days ago, a representative for Iran's Revolutionary Guard gave a state media interview about the near-daily explosions along Iran's southern coast. He said Iran is striking targets in the Strait of Hormuz every 24 hours.

He said quote "We prevent them from passing, but for some time now, America has not responded".

So Iran is calling this border control. Not a war. And pointing out that America has stopped hitting back.

Independent tracking backs this up. The UKMTO, a monitoring centre run by the British Navy, has logged at least 13 ships hit by projectiles or debris since 10 September. Most of them oil tankers.

Now, that tally relies on ship crews reporting in voluntarily. So it's probably incomplete. And it doesn't name an attacker. But maritime experts say the pattern looks Iranian.

One more happened just a day before this story broke. A tanker caught fire after getting hit by an unknown projectile in the strait. The crew are safe, UKMTO says. Nobody has said which ship it was or how bad the damage is.

And here's the strange part. Oil has kept moving anyway. Middle East oil exports have actually rebounded in recent weeks, even with the strait this dangerous.

Gregory Brew, an Iran analyst at the Eurasia Group, says that tells you exactly where both sides stand. He said quote "Negotiations aren't going anywhere. Neither side is really budging. So it's a standoff". Both Iran and the US want control of that waterway. Neither one is chasing a bigger war over it. Not yet.