America's Iran war just turned into a midterm problem for Republicans
1 hour ago · 2 October 2026Share
Lara Trump speaks to guests at a campaign event in Omaha, Nebraska. Matt Johnson from Omaha, Nebraska, United States · CC BY 2.0
Lara Trump just said the Iran war could cost her father-in-law the midterms.
She's the president's daughter-in-law. She used to co-chair the Republican National Committee.
So when she says this, people listen.
It happened two days ago. British journalist Harry Cole was interviewing her for his show, Harry Cole Saves the West.
He asked her straight. Could this war cost Donald Trump the midterms?
She said quote "well, it could cost him these midterms".
Nobody this close to Donald Trump has said that out loud before.
Then Harry Cole pushed harder. What if losing both the House and the Senate was the price of stopping Iran getting a nuclear weapon? Would that be worth it?
Lara Trump said the question almost doesn't matter. She said if Iran gets a nuclear weapon, it won't matter who controls the House or the Senate.
So her argument is simple. The midterms are a price worth paying.
And those midterms are close. Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47 right now. Chuck Schumer, the Democrat from New York, leads the minority. Both the House and the Senate are up for grabs on 3 November.
The war has been running about seven months now, since February.
And people are feeling it at the pump.
AAA, the American motoring organisation, says regular petrol is averaging $4.41 a gallon today. Two weeks ago it was $4.43. AAA said even that was more than a dollar higher than a year before.
And Donald Trump's approval numbers are sliding. But ask three different pollsters and you get three different numbers.
The rest of this story is for members.
The US Capitol building as seen from the eastern side. File photo. Martin Falbisoner · CC BY-SA 3.0
Nate Silver's tracker has him at minus 22.7 net approval today. That's roughly 37% approve, 60% disapprove. The lowest his tracker has ever shown for Donald Trump.
A Wall Street Journal-linked survey, reported today, also puts him at 37%. It called that the worst pre-midterm approval for any president since 1990.
A separate poll, reported two days ago, puts him a bit higher. 42%. Still his lowest of this term. And 68% say he's handling Iran badly.
Three polls. Three numbers. But they all point the same way. Down.
On the war itself, one more number. An NBC News poll, taken between 20 August and 1 September, found 69% of Americans disapprove of how Donald Trump is handling Iran. Only 31% approve.
And here's the part that should worry Republicans most. In that same poll, strong approval from Republican voters themselves fell 18 points since spring. Down to 30%.
That's Republicans turning on the war too. Not just the country as a whole.
But Lara Trump didn't just concede ground. She made the case for the war as well.
She said quote "I don't think anyone would have been able to do what this president has done in the Middle East overall".
She added that America now has what she called a group of countries that are basically full-blown allies.
That's the administration's standing argument. The war reshaped alliances in America's favour. Whatever it costs at home.
Donald Trump has made a similar case himself. He's said he expects the war to end shortly after the midterms. Which means the cost lands before election day, and the payoff only comes after it.
So what don't we know?
Whether Donald Trump has said anything like this in private. What his own campaign's polling actually shows. How Republicans plan to talk about this war in the four weeks before voters decide.
Lara Trump's comment is the clearest public sign yet that the family sees the risk. Whether other Republicans follow her and say so too — nobody has done that yet.
Nothing here was paid for by an advertiser. Members are the entire business model. Bronze is where it starts, and it opens the last seven days in full.
