Why this mattersSo this is not a one-off. Not even close.
Four tankers got hit in a single day, back on 28 and 29 September. Then the Kazimah III caught fire on 1 October. Five Indian crew members had to be brought ashore. September alone saw at least 16 attacks on ships in the Strait.
Since 6 July, there have been 48 projectile strikes reported to UKMTO. 31 of them happened on this exact route, near Oman. 25 of them hit engine rooms. Just like today.
So this is a pattern. Not bad luck.
Traffic through the Strait has dropped by about 75% since the war started. And the people who track this stuff call the threat level severe. They're warning about more attacks, ships getting their navigation messed with, and even mines.
And here's the thing. While the attacks keep happening, Iran is also talking.
Nine days ago, Iran offered a plan. Seven days, and the Strait reopens, if the US agrees to honour an old deal from June. Nuclear talks would restart after that.
Donald Trump said no the very next day. He said Iran only wanted the deal because it was, in his words, losing badly. And he said going back to military strikes was not off the table.
Today, Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, repeated the same seven conditions. Nine days after Trump rejected them.
He says quote "the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until our seven conditions" are met.
That's Iran holding the line in public.
But Qalibaf also said something else. He said the US has been sending proposals through a mediator. Quietly. Even while saying in public that it won't negotiate.
So both sides might be talking behind closed doors, even as tankers keep getting hit.
Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, says Iran hopes Washington picks diplomacy. But he's not counting on it.
He says quote "we are more prepared than before and will take whatever action is necessary".
So Iran is doing two things at once. Offering a deal. And warning it's ready for a fight.
The US says the Strait is already working fine. Its military says thousands of ships and a billion barrels of oil have gone through in recent months. Almost 40 million barrels moved through under US military escort in just 48 hours, around 25 September.
Oil prices show the strain. Brent crude closed near $104 a barrel the week Trump said no. It had climbed as high as $108 that same week.
Here's what we still don't know. Who fired today's projectile. Whether it came from Iran's Revolutionary Guard, or from a proxy. Whether the US will respond to Iran's conditions. And whether Trump changes his mind.
For now, the tankers keep getting hit. And the same seven conditions are still on the table, nine days after Washington said no.
