Ethiopia just retook Tigray's capital and Eritrea just cut ties over it

Ethiopia just took back Mekelle.

That's the capital of Tigray. Federal troops moved in and retook it after more than a week of fighting.

And that fighting just wrecked a peace deal that ended one of the worst wars this region has seen.

So here's what happened. Fighters loyal to the Tigray Peace Forces entered the centre of Mekelle a day ago, in the afternoon. The Ethiopian military followed right behind them. A source close to the Tigray Peace Forces told Reuters that directly.

A humanitarian source and a Mekelle resident both confirmed it separately. The city is under government control.

The Tigray People's Liberation Front posted on Facebook that same evening. It said it had temporarily moved out of Mekelle. It said the regional government would operate from somewhere else for now.

But here's what we don't know. The TPLF hasn't said whether all its fighters actually left. And Reuters says several battlefield reports from this fighting still can't be independently verified.

Two days ago, something else happened. Ethiopian troops retook Alula Aba Nega Airport too. It's about 10 kilometres east of Mekelle's centre. Three people told Reuters the Ethiopian National Defence Force recaptured it.

That airport was one of three airfields rebel forces seized when this all kicked off on 23 September.

So why did the fighting start? Seven armed and political groups joined forces. The TPLF was one of them. Together they announced an alliance aimed at removing Abiy Ahmed's government. He's Ethiopia's Prime Minister.

This is the worst violence in the region since the 2020 to 2022 war. That war killed hundreds of thousands of people. It forced millions from their homes. It ended with the Pretoria Agreement in November 2022.

That agreement has now effectively collapsed.

And here's the pattern worth knowing. Mekelle has changed hands before. Federal forces captured it in November 2020. TPLF forces took it back in June 2021.

Whoever holds Mekelle tends to lose it again.

Now the human cost. At least 52 civilians have been killed in the fighting across northern Ethiopia, according to reporting gathered by Al Jazeera.

Amnesty International says it has received credible reports too. Shelling and air strikes destroying civilian property. Intensified forced conscription. Amnesty says these reports may amount to violations of international humanitarian law.

And it gets bigger than just Tigray.

Three days ago, Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara. It expelled ten Eritrean diplomatic staff. It accused Eritrea of hostile activity.

Eritrea responded by cutting diplomatic ties with Ethiopia completely.

Here's why that's strange. Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopia's federal army against the TPLF in the last war. So this break is hard to read. It isn't clear which side Eritrea now backs, if any.

Ethiopia has also said Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt are backing the opposition coalition fighting its forces in Tigray. Sudan and Egypt have both denied this. So has Eritrea.

The United States has urged restraint. The State Department said Ethiopia and Eritrea should respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, exercise maximum restraint, and return to dialogue and cooperation. It warned the rising tensions have the potential to affect the entire region.

And the TPLF has signalled this isn't over.

Debretsion Gebremichael is the TPLF Chairman. He gave a televised address four days ago. He said his forces would not try to defend every town or fixed position.

According to reporting from Kulu Media, which could not be independently confirmed elsewhere, that's a sign the group may be shifting towards mobile warfare. Preparing for a counteroffensive rather than making a stand in the capital.

Separately, a commander of the pro-government Tigray Peace Force has made his own statement. Brigadier General Gebreegziabher Beyene says his forces control most of the Raya area and parts of Tembien and Enderta. That has not been independently verified.

So what happens next? Nobody knows yet.

It isn't clear whether Ethiopia's federal government plans to hold Mekelle permanently, or whether it's chasing a different military objective from here. It isn't clear whether the TPLF will try to retake the city, or avoid fixed battles altogether like Debretsion has signalled.

And neither Abiy Ahmed's government nor Eritrea's President, Isaias Afwerki, has said anything publicly about the capture of Mekelle.

For now, the city that changed hands twice in the last war has changed hands again.

Nobody has said what makes this time different.