Kemi Badenoch just accused Labour of hiding a huge tax bill

Kemi Badenoch says the Chancellor has hidden a huge hole in Britain's public finances.

And she says it means households will pay far more in tax every year.

The Conservative leader made the claim in the Telegraph a day ago. That's four days after John Healey delivered his first Budget.

She says the gap opens up within the next few years.

So where does the figure come from?

It's Kemi Badenoch's own breakdown. A large annual sum for a new National Care Service. A big shortfall in defence spending. And a smaller sum to build council houses.

She wrote that Labour's plans quote "create a black hole at the heart of the public finances after this Budget".

Now, here's the thing. That's a Conservative Party estimate. It is not a figure from the Office for Budget Responsibility. It is not a government figure.

And the household tax claim works the same way. It's Kemi Badenoch's own sum of what every household would pay if the whole amount came from tax, with no cuts anywhere else.

No tax rise has been announced. It's a projection, not a policy.

So what did John Healey actually promise four days ago?

Three things. First, UK defence spending reaching 3% of GDP by 2030. Rising to 3.5% by 2035, that's the NATO target. But he did not say how it gets paid for. He said that comes at next year's Spending Review.

Second, he confirmed Labour is pressing ahead with a National Care Service. He did not set out its full cost.

Third, he ruled out major welfare cuts before the next election. That pushes any overhaul back by at least a year.

So two of those three promises have no funding plan attached yet.

Andy Burnham, the Prime Minister, says the National Care Service will be funded by changes to the state pension triple lock from April 2030. He made that commitment at Labour's party conference a month ago.

The Treasury rejects the Conservative figures outright. The Treasury says this is quote "fiction".

The Treasury says the Budget meets the government's own fiscal rules. It says the Defence Investment Plan is fully funded. And it says borrowing is on a declining path.

So that's the government saying the sums already add up. No extra tax rise needed, on their account.

Kemi Badenoch took the fight to the Commons today. She said the Prime Minister does not have a serious plan for defence funding or welfare spending. She also said the tax burden next year will be the highest in the country's history.

Andrew Griffith, the Shadow Chancellor, says Britain is facing a fiscal cliff edge.

And the Conservatives have their own answer. They say they would find billions of pounds in savings instead, much of it from welfare. Enough, they say, to cut the deficit without raising taxes at all.

So both sides agree the money has to come from somewhere.

They just disagree completely on where.

What's not known yet is whether the government brings its defence funding plan forward, or whether its welfare position shifts before next year.

Right now, the Treasury calls the figure fiction.

And the Conservatives call it the bill nobody in government will admit is coming.