Ukraine just wrecked over half of Russia's oil refining capacity
1 hour ago · 5 October 2026Share
Moscow oil refinery.kishjar? from Moscow, Russia · CC BY 2.0
Ukraine says it's now wrecked more than 51% of Russia's oil refining capacity.
That's up from 45%, just two weeks ago.
Ukraine's Defense Ministry put the number out a few hours ago. Yevhen Khmara, Ukraine's Defence Minister, says quote "crippling the Russian war machine".
So in two weeks, the number jumped six points. That's not a campaign slowing down. That's one speeding up.
Which refineries got hit? The ministry named seven. Moscow. Yaroslavl. Kirishi. Perm. Ilsky. Saratov. Syzran. Other outlets covering the same ministry release also name the KINEF refinery and the Ust-Luga export terminal. The lists don't quite match between outlets, but that just looks like different edits of the same release. Not a real disagreement.
Khmara says the damage is a significant blow to the enemy's economy, its ability to wage war, and its ability to supply its armed forces.
And here's why Ukraine is doing this. Refineries aren't just fuel for Russia's tanks and jets. They're also money. Russia exports refined fuel and uses that money to pay for the war. So for Ukraine, a refinery is a legitimate military target twice over.
This isn't new. Ukraine has been hitting Russian refineries with long-range drones and missiles for two years now, and this year the campaign has scaled up hard. The Defense Ministry says it tripled its production and buying of long-range strike drones in 2026. A month ago, one Ukrainian strike hit a target 3,200 kilometres inside Russia. That's the longest strike of the whole war.
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Lower Volga region. File photo. NASA · Public domain
And the ministry says it isn't stopping there. It says it will keep scaling up its long-range strike capability.
But here's the catch. That 51% number comes from Ukraine itself. It's built on assessments from Ukraine's own intelligence services, its General Staff and Defense Ministry staff. Nobody outside Ukraine has checked it. The Kyiv Independent says it couldn't independently verify the earlier 45% figure either. And at least one other outlet covering this same release says plainly that the 51% number is a Ukrainian Ministry of Defense estimate, not something independently confirmed.
Russia hasn't said a word about the claim.
And Russia has just made checking it harder. A week ago, Vladimir Putin, Russia's President, signed a decree blocking the publication of data on Russian oil refineries and energy exports. Reuters reports the decree is meant to make Western sanctions on Russia harder to enforce. It also means there's now less public data out there to test Ukraine's numbers against, not more.
So you've got a claim on one side and silence on the other, happening at the same time. Ukraine says it's crossed the halfway mark on wrecking Russia's refining capacity. Russia has said nothing, and has just cut off the data that could prove or disprove it.
So what don't we know? Whether that 51% means those refineries are fully offline, or whether some of them are damaged but being repaired right now. We don't know if Russia's spare capacity and repair crews are keeping pace with the damage, or falling behind. And we don't know how long Russia can keep fighting this war with roughly half its refining capacity gone.
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