Brazil just swung right and Trump's closest regional ally could soon run it
Brazil just voted. And Flávio Bolsonaro came out ahead of President Lula.
But by how much? That's still moving.
No candidate hit 50% of valid votes. So this goes to a runoff. October 25. Flávio Bolsonaro against Lula.
Here's the thing. 158.7 million Brazilians were registered to vote. And every single Brazilian presidential election since 2002 has gone to a runoff. So a runoff itself was no surprise.
The order was the surprise.
The final pre-election polls — Datafolha and Quaest — both had Lula narrowly ahead. Once the actual counting started, Flávio Bolsonaro pulled in front instead.
So look at the numbers. An early count, 64.81% of polling stations in, at 19:14 Brasília time: Flávio Bolsonaro on 49.58%. Lula on 42.25%. A gap of 7.3 points.
But that's not the full picture. The gap has been closing as more stations report.
A later count, around 91% of stations in: Flávio Bolsonaro on about 47.9%. Lula on about 44.1%. Under a 4-point gap now.
Why? Because the states where Lula leads — Bahia, Ceará, Pernambuco — have been reporting slower than the states where Flávio Bolsonaro leads. As they finish, his number creeps up and the gap keeps shrinking.
No source has a final, complete count yet. So any single percentage here is already slightly out of date.
Now, who is Flávio Bolsonaro? He's 45. A senator for Rio de Janeiro. He runs for the right-wing Liberal Party.
And he's the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro — who is serving 27 years in prison over a coup plot, after he lost the 2022 election to Lula by about 1.8 points.
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