Israel and America are just about to restart their war on Iran
2 hours ago · 20 October 2026Share
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth speaks at an Officer Candidate School graduation at Fort Benning, Georgia, on September 4, 2025. File photo.U.S. Secretary of Defense · Public domain
America's defence chief just walked into Israel and nobody told us he was coming.
So why does that matter? Eight days from now, Israel votes. And Netanyahu could lose his majority.
Axios broke the story, citing two people who knew about the trip. The Pentagon won't comment. Israel's embassy in Washington won't comment. Netanyahu's office hasn't said a word.
And here's the real reason this meeting is a big deal.
Washington and Jerusalem are talking about restarting a major war with Iran. Right now. Axios says the conversation is ongoing. Nobody has said if a decision has actually been made.
So picture this. America's top defence official shows up, unannounced, eight days before an election Netanyahu might lose, to talk about a war Israel might restart.
Now the election itself. Israel votes on 27 October. This is the first national election since the Hamas attack on 7 October 2023 — the one that triggered the war in Gaza and dragged in Lebanon and Iran too.
And Netanyahu's coalition is in trouble. A seat tracker cited by Al Jazeera has the opposition, led by Gadi Eisenkot, on 52 seats. Netanyahu's coalition sits on 51. Out of 120. Neither one anywhere near the 61 you need to govern.
So it's close. And it's exactly the moment America's war planner turns up.
Now go back one day. Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu on Truth Social. He called him Strong, Brave and Brilliant. He gave him his Complete and Total Endorsement.
But here's the line that matters most. Trump said if Israelis pick anyone other than Netanyahu, America will have to confront Iran itself — and he said he's not inclined to do that.
He also said Iran has been destroyed, both militarily and financially, and that America will soon finish the job unless Iran changes course.
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Contains the Knesset Israeli Parliament Building in Jerusalem, Palestine. File photo. Gary Todd from Xinzheng, China · CC0
So Trump just tied his own willingness to fight Iran to one man staying in power.
Netanyahu answered him the same day, on a phone call his own office filmed and released. Netanyahu says quote "we have a job to finish, and we'll finish it together." Trump told him he wants him by his side, and predicted a big win.
This conversation didn't start this week either. Axios reported that Trump and Netanyahu were already discussing a major new operation against Iran two weeks ago — before either country's election.
Trump and Israel fought a joint war against Iran that started eight months ago, in late February. A ceasefire followed two months later. It is now described as in tatters.
Iran has noticed all of this. Abbas Araghchi, Iran's Foreign Minister, wrote on X that Netanyahu is driving America into another war just to stay out of jail. He wrote that the last time Netanyahu wanted to finish the job, Iran came out stronger. Then he added quote "be careful; we have unfinished jobs too."
And the oil markets are already reacting. Brent crude sat at $107.57 a barrel this morning. It touched $110 a few days ago — the highest since May — after Iran attacked ships in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this month.
Not everyone reads the politics the same way, though.
Sanam Vakil, who runs the Middle East North Africa programme at Chatham House, says Trump's endorsement is politically significant. It lets Netanyahu present himself as indispensable to America. But she says its real effect on the vote shouldn't be overstated.
Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London, calls the endorsement a political gift. But he says Netanyahu's problems are structural, and Trump can't manufacture a coalition majority out of nothing. Krieg also thinks a joint US-Israel strike on Iran is unlikely before America's midterms on 3 November — that's when he says the political constraints on Washington disappear.
And Gadi Eisenkot, the opposition leader Trump's endorsement is aimed against, says this is a domestic Israeli matter. He says only Israeli citizens get to decide it.
So what don't we know? Nobody has reported what Hegseth and Netanyahu actually said to each other. Nobody has confirmed a timeline for restarting operations against Iran. And nobody has said whether Trump's endorsement depends on Netanyahu actually acting on Iran.
Right now, here's what we've got. America's defence chief, in the room with Netanyahu, eight days before the vote, talking about a war neither government will describe.
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