Iran's blockade just failed hours before Trump said it worked

That warning is dated 16 October, and it covers eight separate attacks on four tankers and four container ships on 11 and 13 October. It isn't a fresh warning written because of the MT ST 3 strike. But it hasn't been withdrawn either. It still stands.

UKMTO has logged 149 maritime security incidents across the region since the start of March.

Now the blockade itself. It's been running since 14 July, after a ceasefire signed in June fell apart. CENTCOM said on 10 October that it had redirected 135 vessels since then. That figure comes from one report only, and could not be checked against a second.

But look at the traffic either way. Vessel transits through Hormuz that the US is helping move are running at around 29 to 30 a day right now. Before the war, that number was about 138.

The Wall Street Journal reported, back in September, that the blockade had stopped new Iranian oil exports from the Gulf. Iran, it said, is living off oil it stored before July. That reporting is paywalled, so it's relayed here through a secondary citation.

And oil and fuel shipments through the strait had actually climbed back to around 80% of the pre-war average by late September, according to Kpler data reported by CNBC.

Iran has also kept moving small amounts of LPG and jet fuel. Ship-to-ship, off Oman. Despite a blockade CENTCOM itself calls "ironclad". That reporting traces back to a single account, carried by two trade outlets rather than two separate investigations.

So Donald Trump's claim and the facts on the water do not line up. "Stopped all Iranian ships" does not describe a blockade with ships still getting hit, a severe warning still standing, and fuel still slipping through.

What we don't know is who is firing at these vessels. And whether Donald Trump will say anything more about a claim a tanker had already disproved before he made it.