Iran just set a tanker on fire and America says the strait is open

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy says a huge oil tanker caught fire after hitting a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz.

It was carrying around 2 million barrels of crude.

And here's the timing. This happened six days ago. One day later, Donald Trump said the US Navy's blockade had stopped all Iranian shipping in that same stretch of water.

So which is it?

The IRGC says the tanker was trying to leave the strait on a banned route. It says the ship had switched off its navigation and tracking systems before it hit the mine. No name for the ship. No flag. No operator. No word on anyone hurt.

And this wasn't the first one, according to Iran. The IRGC Navy says this was the third supertanker since the Saturday before to hit a mine on that same banned route and catch fire. Another IRGC statement, from around the same time, describes a second tanker catching fire after a mine set off a blast in its engine room.

Here's the problem. Nobody can actually say how many ships this adds up to. Two statements from Iran, plus separate incidents reported elsewhere, and none of it lines up cleanly.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy says quote "the massive fire is the fate of any non-compliant oil tanker".

That's Iran saying its closure of the strait still stands. And that it will hit ships that ignore it.

But here's the thing. The mine story is disputed.

UK Maritime Trade Operations, the body that tracks ship safety in the Gulf, says a tanker in that same window was hit by an unidentified projectile. Not a mine.

Sal Mercogliano, a shipping analyst, looked at the video Iran put out with its mine claim. He says it doesn't show a mine strike at all. The ship in the footage is sitting still. There's no sign of an underwater blast.

And there were other ships hit in the same days, by drones and by projectiles, and they look like different vessels entirely.

India's shipping minister, Sarbananda Sonowal, says the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker M/T Valthera was hit by an unknown projectile in the strait six days ago. It had 11 Indian crew on board. Everyone is safe.

The Nicaragua-flagged tanker MT Petro Dolphin, also carrying Indian crew, was hit in a drone attack off Oman the same day. Nine crew were found safe. Two are still missing.